For years, Wyoming’s economic picture has been precarious, with major fluctuations in employment and productivity. However, we have reassured ourselves with the conventional wisdom that our “boom and bust” economy will soon have better days.
Numbers have generally supported this view. Despite the obvious ups and downs, average incomes continued to rise and, at least based on statewide statistics, we had not yet reached a tipping point. Unfortunately, that perspective may be more flawed than we realize.
When we evaluate Wyoming’s economy, we often lose sight of its most important component: its people. Wyoming is made up of people, not numbers on a profit-loss statement. High GDP is great, but if that productivity does not result in an increase in wellbeing of the people doing the work, it is hollow.
When we evaluate how our economy is doing, in addition to factors like average productivity and profitability, we should also look at numbers like personal incomes. Are Wyoming’s citizens keeping up with the rest of the nation? Based on the numbers in recent years, it appears we are not.
I recently had a conversation with a friend involved in statistical analysis, especially in the economic and business sectors. He pointed out that while Wyoming’s per capita income statistics appeared to show healthy growth, they were greatly skewed. The inclusion of Teton County and its many high-income residents in Wyoming’s statewide calculations results in a far rosier picture than truly exists.
It is no surprise that Teton County outpaces the rest of Wyoming when it comes to personal incomes. Teton County is famously among the wealthiest counties in the country, and we all have heard the quips about Jackson’s wealth and the billionaires forcing out the millionaires.
What is surprising is how Teton County has sharply differed from the rest of Wyoming in the years since the COVID-19 pandemic. Looking at the 10 most recent years included in the federal labor statistics data, you can get a sense of how things have changed.
In the early-mid 2010s, Teton County tended to do better than the rest of Wyoming when it came to income growth but trends tended to correspond to the rest of the state. When the rest of the state’s income growth rate changed, Teton County’s tended to as well, and in the same direction.
In 2019, however, we saw the beginning of a sharp divergence. Whereas the rest of Wyoming’s personal income was stagnant and slightly declining, Teton County began to see massive personal income growth. For example, using 2014 as a baseline, Wyoming — outside of Teton County — saw its average personal income decline by 4.7% by 2019. Teton County saw its average personal income grow by 22.7%.
Over the next several years, the rest of Wyoming’s income largely stagnated. It was not until 2023 that average personal incomes caught up with 2014 numbers and, even then, were only 1.9% higher. Teton County, on the other hand, saw its average personal income skyrocket. Comparing 2014 to 2023, Teton County’s average income nearly doubled, increasing by 94.3%.
Due to Wyoming’s small population, this has major impacts on statewide statistics. When looking at statewide numbers, it appears that our state had fairly healthy annual growth, with a 14.4% increase in incomes between 2014 and 2023. What really happened, however, was that Teton County saw incomes skyrocket, while the rest of the state stagnated.
What does this mean? It means that our state policymakers must understand that things may be worse than they appear on paper. Questions about how we encourage quality, high-paying jobs and economic opportunities are likely more urgent than we think. If Wyoming fails to provide the sort of opportunity that can be found elsewhere, people will leave. It is as simple as that.
Unfortunately, we have already become used to this trend. Wyoming ranks last at retaining its young people, with the highest out-migration rate in the country. Census numbers also show that, despite a statewide population increase of around 3.3% between 2010 and 2020, almost every age demographic saw population losses in Wyoming, except the 65 and older demographic, which saw an increase of over 48%.
This is troubling, as it shows we are losing our productive-aged population. There is little doubt that the lack of economic opportunities plays a real role.
Our policymakers need to take this issue seriously. This goes beyond hoping that our legacy industries will continue to prop us up. They are an important part of our economy and need to be supported, but they cannot be the only part of our economy.
Too often, we let discontent with change stifle progress. Either our economy will change, or we will continue to export our opportunity and our young people to the benefit of other states. I want my children to have the chance to have good paying, quality jobs here in Wyoming. If we do not take this issue seriously, they may not have the chance.
Cheyenne attorney Khale Lenhart is a former chairman of the Laramie County Republican Party. He can be reached at khale.lenhart@gmail.com.
